Intel CEO Paul Otellini took the stage at CES today to unveil 16 new 45nm processors: five dual-core parts for the mobile space, seven desktop parts (four Duos and three Quads), and four Xeon processors. Leaked roadmaps and prior announcements meant that the launch lineup didn't carry any surprises, but it's worth recapping what Intel has announced because we may see some of these same processors featured at next week's Macworld show.
Mobile is where the action was in 2007, and 2008's full 45nm ramp-up will only throw gasoline on the mobile fire. Intel knows where the action is, so the CES spotlight was firmly fixed on the five new mobile parts: a quartet of Core 2 Duo processors at speeds from 2.1GHz to 2.6GHz, topped off by a 2.8GHz Core 2 Extreme part, the X9000.
All of these parts will plug right into laptops based on Intel's Santa Rosa platform, and they should be available this month. There's pretty much no technical reason why Apple couldn't announce Macbook Pro and iMac bumps based on these new parts next week, but seeing as how the lowly Macintosh doesn't really have the pizazz of the iPhone or the AppleTV or movie rentals, I'm expecting a post-MWSF stealth update. No need to waste precious stage time on a computer. (I kid, I kid. I'm just bitter about the previous Macworld.)
The new Penryn parts should add a little bit of oomph to Apple's portable and all-in-one desktop lineup even at the same clockspeed, while shaving a few watts off of the power budget. (Just because these new Penryn mobiles launch at the same 35W TDP as the Meroms that they'll replace doesn't mean that they're not more power-efficient. It just means that we don't know how much more efficient they are, and under what conditions.)
Processor Speed L2 cache FSB Speed
Core 2 Extreme X9000 2.8GHz 6MB 800MHz
Core 2 Duo T9500 2.6GHz 6MB 800MHz
Core 2 Duo T9300 2.5GHz 6MB 800MHz
Core 2 Duo T8300 2.4GHz 3MB 800MHz
Core 2 Duo T8100 2.1GHz 3MB 800MHz
New laptop processors are great, but Intel is really hoping to stoke mobile mania this year with their forthcoming Menlow platform. Otellini narrowed down the timeframe slightly for the launch of Menlow's components—the Silverthorne CPU and the Poulsbo chipset—to "later in Q1," with the first Menlow-based devices from ASUS, Lenovo, Toshiba, BenQ, Quanta, and others appearing in the second quarter of this year. At that point, we're going to find out whether the "ultramobile PC" (UMPC) is a viable form factor or an awkward, in-between product that's too big to be a phone and too cramped to replace a laptop.
Core 2 Quad debuts versus Phenom on the desktop
Moving on to the world of desktop PCs and to the Intel vs. AMD horse race that still dominates that scene, Otellini took aim at Sunnyvale with seven long-awaited new Core 2 parts: four Duos and three Quads. Even with its new Core 2 Quad parts delayed until sometime later in the first quarter of this year, Intel's dual-core offerings are still poised to hammer AMD clear through the first quarter. The E8500 is Intel's premium chip in the consumer market, with a price of $266. The next chip in line, the E8400, is just $183 for a 3GHz part with 6MB of L2 cache. That's a 35 percent price cut compared to Intel's current 3GHz E6850 and $6 cheaper than the 2.66GHz E6750. Prices (and price/performance ratios) like this are going to put even more pressure on AMD's K8 at a time when Phenom is incapable of picking up the slack.
Processor Speed L2 cache FSB Speed
Core 2 Quad Q9550 2.83GHz 12MB 1333MHz
Core 2 Quad Q9450 2.66GHz 12MB 1333MHz
Core 2 Quad Q9300 2.50GHz 6MB 1333MHz
Core 2 Duo E8500 3.16GHz 6MB 1333MHz
Core 2 Duo E8400 3GHz 6MB 1333MHz
Core 2 Duo E8200 2.66GHz 6MB 1333MHz
Core 2 Duo E8190 2.66GHz 6MB 1333MHz
Phenom's low price will probably give it some traction against Intel's upcoming 2.5GHz 9300 and 2.66GHz 9450, and a slower quad-core can theoretically outperform even a significantly faster dual-core provided that the software in question is properly threaded. Given the relative paucity of of consumer-level software capable of using this level of threading, however, Phenom doesn't have much ground to stand on when compared with Intel's current and upcoming dual-core products. Making matters worse, the CPU isn't set to hit 3GHz until late in the second quarter of 2008.
Until AMD demonstrates a newfound ability to ramp Barcelona, respins the core for greater IPC efficiency, or manages to ship its upcoming 45nm Shanghai parts in volume and at competitive speeds, the game is Intel's to lose. Moving into 2008, Santa Clara's 45nm dual-core prices are excellent. If Conroe was good, Penryn looks better across the board.
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